2009 Convention Results (With CD Breakdowns)

The grand total results for the convention have been available for a while. I first saw them on the AP. Pat Mullins also e-mailed out the final results for each race a few days ago. Also the congressional district breakdown for the attorney general race was first released published by Not Larry Sabato and Shaun Kenney. However here is the results with the congressional district breakdowns for each of the three races. (To the best of my knowledge it is the first time the complete results have been posted online.) I was waiting for a little while on talking about the results in the hope that I could get hold of the results from the different units and analyze that. It seems however that certain members of the executive committee very vehemently opposed releasing these results and they are unavailable.

The first thing about these results is how well each of the victors did. Bolling, Cuccinelli, and Mullins won by 84%, 57%, and 70% respectively. It was also very gracious of Muldoon, Brownlee, Foster, and Stanley to concede and pledge to work for and with their former opponents. I am confident the success of our nominees and the graciousness of their challengers will unite our party over the summer, and towards victory in the fall.

In the Lieutenant Governor's race a couple things stand out. First off Bolling didn't do poorly in any congressional district. The lowest he received in any cd was 73.3%. Any candidate would love for that to be their lowest return in a district. Another thing that stands out is how poorly Patrick Muldoon did in the 9th district. In his home district he received 11.19% of the vote, and it was his 9th strongest congressional district. There were only two districts where he received a lower percent of the vote: the 8th and 3rd districts. I was honestly shocked as I expected Muldoon would beable to bring a lot of supporters to the convention from the 9th. Either the letter sent out by the 9th district leaders did in Muldoon, or he is just not very popular or well known in his home district. The other interesting thing is that Muldoon took the highest percent in the 10th district. With 202.39 weighted votes he took 26.7%, 10.33% better than he did statewide. I'm not sure exactly why Mulddon did that well in the 10th district, but maybe 10th district voters are itching for a change and are becoming sick of the establishment for some reason.

In the Attorney General race Ken Cuccinelli won eight of the eleven congressional districts, and came in second in the three he lost. John Brownlee won the 9th and the 4th, and Dave Foster won the 8th. There were also only two congressional districts Ken won where he received less than 50%. They were the 3rd and the 5th districts. Keeping Ken below 50% in the congressional districts he won was an essential part of the Brownlee/Foster plan to force a second ballot. They were atleast successful in two of the eight districts Ken won. Ken took over 65% in the 7th, 11th, and 1st districts and over 60% in the 10th and 6th districts. While Ken's home district is the 11th, the 7th gave Ken the highest percentage of the vote based in part on a surprisingly large victory in Chesterfield Co. Both Ken and Dave Foster won their home districts, the 11th, and 8th. John Brownlee only pulled 38.45% in the 6th district where he resides. Ken was able to win Salem and Roanoke cities, and almost took Roanoke county from John Brownlee. While John lives in the 6th district some would consider the 9th his home district since he has worked their as a prosecutor for a while, and he was able to win the 9th with 63.03% of the vote. However a win in the 9th only does you so much when it has about 700 less delegate votes than the 11th district.

From a campaigning perspective one of the important lessons of Ken's convention victory is the importance of building a statewide network. In a primary you can jack up vote totals in high density localities to win. In a convention each locality is assigned a certain number of votes. This forces you to compete in every location if you want to win, and you need to try to get a significant percentage of each localities votes. Ken's statewide network that the convention forced him to create enabled him to compete in every single district, and will hopefully be the backbone that propels him to victory in November. Ken's extensive political connections as an active state senator almost guaranteed him victories in Loudon, Fairfax, and Prince William counties as soon as he announced. Having the political connections heading into the race enabled him to win these three large localities easily. Political connections are something any candidate needs to develop before running an effective campaign for statewide office.

While the chairmanship race was more of a contest than the Lieutenant Governor's race, Pat Mullins and co pretty well swept the floor. There are two things that jump out though. Bill Stanley almost won his home congressional district. He took 48.84% in the 5th district which is a very solid showign for an underdog with only three weeks to campaign. The congressional district where Stanley did second best was the 11th district where he took 36.05%. The 11th district is the district Prince William County votes in, and it was one of the few ways Jeff Frederick's supporters had an opportunity at the convention to protest what happened to Jeff this past spring.

That's as much as I can draw out of the congressional breakdowns for the convention results. I'm hcurious to here what you think the results say. Also it would be very nice in future conventions to have access to unit results so that we can analyze them and see where candidates strengths are in each district, and what correlations and trends the unit results tell us. Hopefully this is something we will have access to after the next convention whenever that may be.

On one final note it will be interesting to see if Deeds and his statewide network and connections can pull of a victory tomorrow.