Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Fairfax Board of Supervisors Results and Analysis

In the middle of January, Republicans came within 16 votes of winning Brian Moran's old House of Delegates seat in Alexandria. Tonight Republicans once again came within 1% of winning another NOVA special election, this one in Fairfax County.

In the special election to elect a new Chairman of the Fairfax Board of Supervisors, the Democrats only won by about 1,200 votes out of over 100,000 votes cast.

10:04pm UPDATE: Herrity concedes. That’s two elections in a month in NOVA where GOP candidate has gotten within 1%.

UPDATE: Uncertified results with absentee returns appears to be:

Bulova 51,949
Herrity 50,732

While many people will analyze what tonight's results say about the political direction of Virginia, I want to focus on the results from the precincts in Fairfax Co. that make up the 37th State Senate District.

I analyzed the results from these precincts and found that Herrity dominated this part of Fairfax Co.:

Herrity: 9,206 votes, 56.25%

Bulova: 7,159 votes, 43.75%

Precincts Won: Herrity 30; Bulova 8

These results are particularly important because they are the best indicator as to how well a limited government principled conservative might do in a winter special election in this district. One of the criticisms of nominating Ken for Attorney General is that if he is elected the GOP will lose his senate seat. In an election we lost by a hair in Fairfax Co. as a whole, Herrity won by 13% in the 37th Senate District. Imagine a 13% win in a special election in NOVA next year, boy even winning by just half that much would be amazing. This race is the best indicator we have as to how a Republican will do in a special election in this district, and it indicates that a limited government conservative has a very good chance of winning this race.

Electing Ken Cuccinelli as Attorney General doesn't mean we will lose the 37th District Senate Seat.

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