In Which I Agree With Tom Davis...

While I tend not to agree with Tom Davis, he understands Virginia politics very well, and his analysis of last week's primary was spot on. When asked by Politico what the most important election result was, and what we can learn, Davis made the point that the establishment is in trouble and even pointed to Virginia as an example of this.

"It's a political revolt out there. Jane Harman's numbers were down. Gary Miller's under 50 percent. Even the establishment Republicans in Virginia who run, they had multiple candidates against them and they were well under 50."

In VA-2, VA-5, and VA-11 there were very clear establishment candidates in Scott Rigell, Robert Hurt, and Pat Herrity. Scott, had the full backing of Bob McDonnell and Bill Bolling, Robert Hurt had the support of most Republican officials because of his electability as opposed to his positions, and Herrity had the support of almost every party leader and elected official in the 11th district including Becky Stoeckel and Anthony Bedell. With all this support all three of these candidates failed to top 50% of the vote, and in probably the biggest surprise of the night, Herrity lost to Fimian by double digits. The only reason the establishment won in the 2nd and 5th is that the opposition was very disorganized and self centered and split the vote at least 5 ways in each race. When you combine these results with Howie Lind and Bill Stanley's victories in the 10th and 5th District Chair races, combined with victories in a number of unit chair races, this has to be a discouraging year for the establishment in VA. When the grassroots organizes and works together it can win any race. As a result we now have a much stronger party as we work together to win every congressional district in the state this fall.

Let's Play the Speculation Game

Other blogs have been starting to throw out speculation for who will run for the Republican nomination for US Senate to challenge Jim Webb in 2012. This is always fun so why not play the game here too?

Potential Candidates:

Del. Bob Marshall- Marshall ran against Jim Gilmore for the nomination in 2008 and lost by a very slim margin in what was another grassroots vs. establishment battle. That run greatly raised the stature and name recognition of Marshall and put him in a great position to run again in 2012. Marshall has been a hero for both life and the taxpayer in the House of Delegates and has begun to take a larger stand against federal government intrusion especially with the legislation he has pre-filed for the upcoming session of the General Assembly in regards to Obamacare. Marshall also had the support of our Attorney General-elect Ken Cuccinelli last year and I see no reason why he wouldn't have his support again in 2012. Since Cuccinelli's profile has risen greatly over the past 12 months a Cuccinelli-backed Marshall will only be one more reason why Marshall could be our next US Senator, especially if the Cuccinelli grassroots organization steps up for Marshall as well. Marshall could have a team of  bloggers/internet activists, grassroots volunteers, experienced campaign staffers, and even potential donors lining up to help him in addition to his own seasoned campaign team. My prediction: Running.

former Rep. Tom Davis- Who even knows? Davis is sitting up in NOVA playing to the beat of his own RINO drum. I sure hope for the sake of the Republican Party of Virginia he doesn't run, but honestly I bet he will. If he decides to run again I hope we nominate via convention again so he will get scared and drop out again. We'd really just be getting a slightly more moderate Jim Webb. A slight improvement to the current situation would be a great disappointment to the people of Virginia who want a great improvement. I wonder how Davis feels being by himself in his "big tent" Republican party? My prediction: Probably running.

Governor-elect Bob McDonnell- No chance in hell of getting him to run. If McDonnell governs like he campaigns, which he has so far with the transition, and decided to run for Senate against Webb we would have another blowout on our hands similar to the one he gave Creigh Deeds in November. But there is no way McDonnell would leave the Govenor's office especially with the large amount of things he wants to accomplish especially when Virginia is different from other states and he will only have four years to accomplish his goals with no hopes of re-election if he falls short of his goals. My prediction: Not running.

Lt. Governor Bill Bolling- Bolling wants to be Governor and there is no reason he should give up a shot at that to run for US Senate. None at all. Especially if he and McDonnell prove to be an effective governing team than the voters of Virginia will have no reason not to pick him to be their next Governor in 2013. My prediction: Not running.

Attorney General-elect Ken Cuccinelli- I put Cuccinelli in the same category as Bob McDonnell. Cuccinelli has a long list of goals he wants to accomplish as Attorney General and the is NO way he will leave that office short of achieving these goals. The most likely option for Cuccinelli is to run for re-election at this point which he has spoken of many times since his victory in November. As far as Cuccinelli seeking higher office, I feel that the US Senate would be a much better fit for him than the Governor's mansion so I eventually expect him to move that way, but the earliest we will see Cuccinelli make a run for the US Senate will be in 2014 when Mark Warner's seat is up. Expect him and his grassroots army to line up behind Marshall as mentioned above. Just imagine sometime in the near future we could have our US Senators from Virginia be Bob Marshall and Ken Cuccinelli. That would be quite awesome and cause C-SPAN 2 to be one of the most entertaining channels on TV. My prediction: Not running.

Rep. Eric Cantor- Why would he want to be the junior Senator from Virginia when he can be the Speaker of the House? My prediction: Not running

former Del. Chris Saxman- A lot of people threw out Saxman's name last year and his name has been thrown out a lot in regards to the 2012 seat as well. It will be interesting to see what he does especially since he will most likely working as an education advisor or possibly Secretary of Education under Bob McDonnell. My prediction: Possibly running.


Cross posted at Roanoke On The Right

Fimian Outraises Connolly by 100k

A quick glance at 3^rd quarter fundraising reports filed with the Federal Election Commission Thursday shows that entrepreneur and GOP candidate Keith Fimian out-raised Democrat Rep. Gerry Connolly by over $100,000 in the first three months of his candidacy.

Fimian raised $233,832 in total contributions and $286,332 in total receipts. Connolly raised $124,726 in total contributions and $176,736 in total receipts.

With over a quarter-million dollars on hand after just one fundraising quarter, Fimian has proved that he is once again poised to run a strong race against Connolly. But this time, Connolly will have to take responsibility for the lockstep liberal record he’s compiled in Congress, voting with Nancy Pelosi 97% of the time according to the Washington Post.

A recent Post poll found that Northern Virginians disapprove of Pelosi’s leadership by a 13-point margin: “In Virginia's suburbs outside the capital, Pelosi wins support from 42 percent of the voters, better than her national average a few months ago, while 55 percent disapprove.” (Paul Kane,“Unpopular in Virginia, Pelosi becoming a campaign target,” Washington Post “Capitol Briefing,” 10/13/09)

When you combine this information with other fundraising successes by people like Ken Cuccinelli, and Jay McConville it will once again be a good time to be a Republican. Not only that, imagine having a conservative in Tom Davis's old seat. That should make every conservative's heart happy.

Jeff Frederick is still my Chairman

Any time a party loses an election plenty of finger pointing goes on. Within the GOP the most popular fingerpointing game is for the liberals and the establishment in the party to blame the social conservatives and grassroots for the loss. On the national level we have seen this with the ridiculous attacks on Sarah Palin.

On the state level conservatives are witnessing a similar attack as one of Tom Davis' surrogates is pushing for Jeff Frederick to be removed as RPV Chairman. For a fairly comprehensive summary of this discussion, you can take a look at the e-mail that started it all, and then check out this analysis/summary.

Jeff Frederick is a young energetic articulate principled conservative. When he was elected to the House fo Delegates, he was the youngest delegate since Thomas Jefferson. He has been a constant target of the Warner/Kaine machines, but has won on the outskirts of NOVA. While he has not been a perfect chairman, he has been blunt at times about the problems, and stuck to his principles. At the very least he has updated the RPV in a very visible way by giving it a much better website (as opposed to this). I respect admire and trust Jeff Frederick, and I believe he is the man to guide us to success in 2009. I was proud to beable to vote for Jeff Frederick for party chair at the last state convention, and I will continue to support him in any way I can.