Jeannemarie Davis Running for Governor?

Now begins the analysis of figuring out the implications of Bolling announcing he wouldn't run for the nomination for Governor of VA.  One thing I began pondering was what would Bolling's supporters do?  Do they sit out? Get behind someone for LG or AG? Something else? Interestingly as I talked to multiple people a fascinating rumor emerged.  Numerous people were talking about Jeanemarie Davis running for Governor.  Nature abhors a vacuum.  There are a number of people who can't stand Cuccinelli, and think he is too extreme for the party.  For them Jeannemarie is an experienced person with a more moderate record.  They think she may be reconsidering running in a crowded Lieutenant Governor field.  When I contacted Davis's campaign they refused to deny the rumors.  Bolling's withdrawal has definitely shaken up the race, and it will be interesting to see if anything else changes as a result.

For my part I am excited Cuccinelli is the nominee, and look forward to seeing him passionately advocate first principles in his bid for governor.


UPDATE:While the original statement from the Davis campaign was rather noncommittal, a response after this post was unequivocal that Davis was not thinking about switching races. We'll see what happens.  As Bolling has shown us, things sure can change in politics.  There are a number of Republicans out there who don't want Ken to get the nomination.  Some of them want Davis to run for Governor..  We'll see what happens.

Which Election are Virginia Republican 2013 Candidates Focused on?

Virginia is the rare state that has important elections every year, and one only two states to elect it's governor the year after the presidential election.  This creates an interesting balancing act for those running for statewide office following the presidential election.  As the 2012 election winds down, it is worth looking at who has focused their attention on which race over the previous year.

The Governor's race features a heavyweight match up between Ken Cuccinelli and Bill Bolling.  The issue of focus has been a minor issue in this election.  Prior to the VA State Convetion, Bill Bolling accused Cuccinelli of being focused on 2013 instead of 2012.  Ironically those of us at the convention couldn't mention the numerous Bolling staff wearing blue Bolling 2013 shirts.  Walking billboards for a man focused on 2012. While both men have been active on the campaign trail for this year's candidates, Cuccinelli has been clearly outworking Bolling.  The way he has gone all in for Romney has been crucial in bringing the far right on board in support of Romney in the state, and he has been a powerful voice for the Property Rights Amendment.  Their FB cover pictures also tell an interesting story.  One person is entirely focused on 2012.  The other wants to make sure the limelight is focused on himself as he supports Romney and Allen.

In the Lieutenant Governor's race, we have five announced candidates, and potentially others on the sidelines.  I'm going to mention those who stand out for various reasons.

Steve Martin wins the award for the most creative way to build name ID for his race while helping elect the Republican ticket in 2012.  Shortly after the Chick-fil-a protest occurred this summer, Steve Martin's campaign came up with a novel idea.  Steve Martin was going to host call parties at VA Victory Centers around the state and serve those who came to volunteer Chick-fil-a dinners.  It simultaneously attracted those who had recently fallen in love with Chick-fil-a, helped the VA Victory effort, and built his named ID around the state.  Steve Martin regularly reports that these call parties exceed the call goals for the victory centers.  Combined with rallies for campaigns and organizations, Steve Martin is easily the most aggressive campaigner this year of all the announced Republican Lieutenant Governor candidates.

Susan Stimpson on the other hand stands out as a pundit and an observer focused on her own race, instead of someone who is working hard to campaign for the Republican ticket.  If you've been on facebook, you've probably seen ads for her fb page.  She's had both the traditional ads, and the new sponsored ads all encouraging people to like her page.  When you view her page, it is full of commentary on the presidential debates, and the latest polling data, as well as her record in Stafford.  What it does not show is her campaigning for the Republican ticket.  Look for the pictures of her at Republican rallies and Victory Centers around the state.  They as well as a steady stream of statuses urging people to get involved in this election do not appear anywhere on her very active fb page.  That is for one reason, she has been the candidate for 2013 state office most absent from the 2012 elections.

One can not talk about Lieutenant Governor candidates working hard in the 2012 cycle without mentioning Pete Snyder.  Rumors abound that the position of VA Victory Director was created to catapult Pete Snyder into the Lieutenant Governor's race.  Only time will tell whether those rumors are true, but if so it will be undeniable which LG candidate worked hardest to elect the Republican ticket in 2012.

The Attorney General's race is quite unique.  Rob Bell and Mark Obenshain sponsored the VA Property Rights Amendment in the House and Senate respectively.  They are both using this opportunity to build their profile around the state by campaigning aggressively for the amendment.  Whichever one wins the nomination, this state will have helped this state because their 2013 race motivated them to campaign extra hard for this important issue.

What are your thoughts?  What did I miss?  Will the way candidates focused on 2012 impact who you vote for in 2013?

In Which I Agree With Tom Davis...

While I tend not to agree with Tom Davis, he understands Virginia politics very well, and his analysis of last week's primary was spot on. When asked by Politico what the most important election result was, and what we can learn, Davis made the point that the establishment is in trouble and even pointed to Virginia as an example of this.

"It's a political revolt out there. Jane Harman's numbers were down. Gary Miller's under 50 percent. Even the establishment Republicans in Virginia who run, they had multiple candidates against them and they were well under 50."

In VA-2, VA-5, and VA-11 there were very clear establishment candidates in Scott Rigell, Robert Hurt, and Pat Herrity. Scott, had the full backing of Bob McDonnell and Bill Bolling, Robert Hurt had the support of most Republican officials because of his electability as opposed to his positions, and Herrity had the support of almost every party leader and elected official in the 11th district including Becky Stoeckel and Anthony Bedell. With all this support all three of these candidates failed to top 50% of the vote, and in probably the biggest surprise of the night, Herrity lost to Fimian by double digits. The only reason the establishment won in the 2nd and 5th is that the opposition was very disorganized and self centered and split the vote at least 5 ways in each race. When you combine these results with Howie Lind and Bill Stanley's victories in the 10th and 5th District Chair races, combined with victories in a number of unit chair races, this has to be a discouraging year for the establishment in VA. When the grassroots organizes and works together it can win any race. As a result we now have a much stronger party as we work together to win every congressional district in the state this fall.

Welcoming our New Governor!

There’s something special about seeing the person you helped get elected, become inaugurated. I was fortunate enough, along with some friends, to be able to have this experience. After working as volunteers during the morning, we all trekked over to the staff entrance, flashed our passes, then watched as Governor-elect Bob McDonnell was sworn into the highest office in the state of Virginia. The air was buzzing with energy and excitement as 4,000+ people packed into the bleachers and surrounding areas. The 19-gun salute by Howitzers, placed at the south end of Capitol Square, sounded after the oath of office was taken and F22 Raptor jets soared over head to announce the beginning of a new Virginia.

The start of his acceptance speech pointed out the fact that, yes, he had kept his first campaign promise - "I said it would be sunny and warm in Richmond on Inauguration Day!" Indeed it was.

His speech highlighted many of the issues that he ran his campaign on - job creation, opportunity, education, transportation, and community service. However, it did not dwell on the past. Governor McDonnell focused on the future of Virginia -

“Where opportunity is absent, we must create it. Where opportunity is limited, we must expand it. Where opportunity is unequal, we must make it open to everyone... I’ve had people tell me they fear that America may no longer be the land of opportunity it has always been and that Virginia’s history in playing a leading role in the life of our nation may be just that — history,” he declared. “They are wrong.”

He acknowledged the tough tasks that his administration has ahead of them, thanked the Kaine administration for their service, then turned to the thousands of Americans facing him and charged them saying -

"It is right to help one another. It is right to work together to get results and solve problems. It is right to provide opportunities for all. Let us heed the words of the Father of our Country, employ these eternal rules of order and right, and get to work for the good of the people of Virginia. Thank you and God Bless the Commonwealth of Virginia."

You can see the transcript of his acceptance speech HERE.

Let's Play the Speculation Game

Other blogs have been starting to throw out speculation for who will run for the Republican nomination for US Senate to challenge Jim Webb in 2012. This is always fun so why not play the game here too?

Potential Candidates:

Del. Bob Marshall- Marshall ran against Jim Gilmore for the nomination in 2008 and lost by a very slim margin in what was another grassroots vs. establishment battle. That run greatly raised the stature and name recognition of Marshall and put him in a great position to run again in 2012. Marshall has been a hero for both life and the taxpayer in the House of Delegates and has begun to take a larger stand against federal government intrusion especially with the legislation he has pre-filed for the upcoming session of the General Assembly in regards to Obamacare. Marshall also had the support of our Attorney General-elect Ken Cuccinelli last year and I see no reason why he wouldn't have his support again in 2012. Since Cuccinelli's profile has risen greatly over the past 12 months a Cuccinelli-backed Marshall will only be one more reason why Marshall could be our next US Senator, especially if the Cuccinelli grassroots organization steps up for Marshall as well. Marshall could have a team of  bloggers/internet activists, grassroots volunteers, experienced campaign staffers, and even potential donors lining up to help him in addition to his own seasoned campaign team. My prediction: Running.

former Rep. Tom Davis- Who even knows? Davis is sitting up in NOVA playing to the beat of his own RINO drum. I sure hope for the sake of the Republican Party of Virginia he doesn't run, but honestly I bet he will. If he decides to run again I hope we nominate via convention again so he will get scared and drop out again. We'd really just be getting a slightly more moderate Jim Webb. A slight improvement to the current situation would be a great disappointment to the people of Virginia who want a great improvement. I wonder how Davis feels being by himself in his "big tent" Republican party? My prediction: Probably running.

Governor-elect Bob McDonnell- No chance in hell of getting him to run. If McDonnell governs like he campaigns, which he has so far with the transition, and decided to run for Senate against Webb we would have another blowout on our hands similar to the one he gave Creigh Deeds in November. But there is no way McDonnell would leave the Govenor's office especially with the large amount of things he wants to accomplish especially when Virginia is different from other states and he will only have four years to accomplish his goals with no hopes of re-election if he falls short of his goals. My prediction: Not running.

Lt. Governor Bill Bolling- Bolling wants to be Governor and there is no reason he should give up a shot at that to run for US Senate. None at all. Especially if he and McDonnell prove to be an effective governing team than the voters of Virginia will have no reason not to pick him to be their next Governor in 2013. My prediction: Not running.

Attorney General-elect Ken Cuccinelli- I put Cuccinelli in the same category as Bob McDonnell. Cuccinelli has a long list of goals he wants to accomplish as Attorney General and the is NO way he will leave that office short of achieving these goals. The most likely option for Cuccinelli is to run for re-election at this point which he has spoken of many times since his victory in November. As far as Cuccinelli seeking higher office, I feel that the US Senate would be a much better fit for him than the Governor's mansion so I eventually expect him to move that way, but the earliest we will see Cuccinelli make a run for the US Senate will be in 2014 when Mark Warner's seat is up. Expect him and his grassroots army to line up behind Marshall as mentioned above. Just imagine sometime in the near future we could have our US Senators from Virginia be Bob Marshall and Ken Cuccinelli. That would be quite awesome and cause C-SPAN 2 to be one of the most entertaining channels on TV. My prediction: Not running.

Rep. Eric Cantor- Why would he want to be the junior Senator from Virginia when he can be the Speaker of the House? My prediction: Not running

former Del. Chris Saxman- A lot of people threw out Saxman's name last year and his name has been thrown out a lot in regards to the 2012 seat as well. It will be interesting to see what he does especially since he will most likely working as an education advisor or possibly Secretary of Education under Bob McDonnell. My prediction: Possibly running.


Cross posted at Roanoke On The Right