Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Election Prediction: Tsunami, not a Wave

Very simply the rejection of liberalism, progressivism, and elitism that is occurring is so widespread that this will be a tsunami, not a wave. To quote one democrat consultant...
Everybody that is tied will lose, and everyone that is ahead by a few points will lose because of the GOP wave,” said one party media consultant who is involved in a wide array of House races. “There are going to be some surprises.
The early voting numbers show a strong shift towards the Republicans, and the generic ballot poll shows unprecedented support for Conservativism, and Republicans. Gallup noted just how strong what the generic ballot poll domination means in their last poll...
It should be noted, however, that this year’s 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained.
In light of this and other evidence let's make some predictions...

Republicans win at least 70 seats in the house.

Republicans also take back the senate with late wins in NV, Washington, and other places. While it is a stretch for Republicans to win the senate, history gives us some good direction.
Since 1930, every time voters have thrown one party out of control of the House, they've done the same thing in the Senate.

Surprising wins...
  • Governor: Tom Tancredo wins Colorado
  • Senate: Christine O'Donnell wins Deleware
  • House: Patrick Murray wins the 8th district, and Democrats are left with one House seat in Virginia.
Other Important Races
  • Rick Boyer, a long time homeschool dad, is running for Clerk of the Court in Campbell Co.
  • Brenna Findley is running for Attorney General in Iowa. If she wins this would be a huge win for liberty in the Attorney General office.
  • The Iowa Supreme Court Retention vote. If the judges on the ballot lose this would be a huge blow to judicial activism on the state level.
  • Also it will be interesting to see the results of the VA Constitutional Amendments. They passed the general assembly, but it seems a lot of people are just finding out about them, and the blogosphere seems very unfriendly to the amendments. Few elected officials are really publicly supporting them.
None of these predictions, or the hard work that thousands have exerted will mean a thing, unless you vote. As you watch the returns, this is a very helpful guide.

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