2009 Convention Results (With CD Breakdowns)

The grand total results for the convention have been available for a while. I first saw them on the AP. Pat Mullins also e-mailed out the final results for each race a few days ago. Also the congressional district breakdown for the attorney general race was first released published by Not Larry Sabato and Shaun Kenney. However here is the results with the congressional district breakdowns for each of the three races. (To the best of my knowledge it is the first time the complete results have been posted online.) I was waiting for a little while on talking about the results in the hope that I could get hold of the results from the different units and analyze that. It seems however that certain members of the executive committee very vehemently opposed releasing these results and they are unavailable.

The first thing about these results is how well each of the victors did. Bolling, Cuccinelli, and Mullins won by 84%, 57%, and 70% respectively. It was also very gracious of Muldoon, Brownlee, Foster, and Stanley to concede and pledge to work for and with their former opponents. I am confident the success of our nominees and the graciousness of their challengers will unite our party over the summer, and towards victory in the fall.

In the Lieutenant Governor's race a couple things stand out. First off Bolling didn't do poorly in any congressional district. The lowest he received in any cd was 73.3%. Any candidate would love for that to be their lowest return in a district. Another thing that stands out is how poorly Patrick Muldoon did in the 9th district. In his home district he received 11.19% of the vote, and it was his 9th strongest congressional district. There were only two districts where he received a lower percent of the vote: the 8th and 3rd districts. I was honestly shocked as I expected Muldoon would beable to bring a lot of supporters to the convention from the 9th. Either the letter sent out by the 9th district leaders did in Muldoon, or he is just not very popular or well known in his home district. The other interesting thing is that Muldoon took the highest percent in the 10th district. With 202.39 weighted votes he took 26.7%, 10.33% better than he did statewide. I'm not sure exactly why Mulddon did that well in the 10th district, but maybe 10th district voters are itching for a change and are becoming sick of the establishment for some reason.

In the Attorney General race Ken Cuccinelli won eight of the eleven congressional districts, and came in second in the three he lost. John Brownlee won the 9th and the 4th, and Dave Foster won the 8th. There were also only two congressional districts Ken won where he received less than 50%. They were the 3rd and the 5th districts. Keeping Ken below 50% in the congressional districts he won was an essential part of the Brownlee/Foster plan to force a second ballot. They were atleast successful in two of the eight districts Ken won. Ken took over 65% in the 7th, 11th, and 1st districts and over 60% in the 10th and 6th districts. While Ken's home district is the 11th, the 7th gave Ken the highest percentage of the vote based in part on a surprisingly large victory in Chesterfield Co. Both Ken and Dave Foster won their home districts, the 11th, and 8th. John Brownlee only pulled 38.45% in the 6th district where he resides. Ken was able to win Salem and Roanoke cities, and almost took Roanoke county from John Brownlee. While John lives in the 6th district some would consider the 9th his home district since he has worked their as a prosecutor for a while, and he was able to win the 9th with 63.03% of the vote. However a win in the 9th only does you so much when it has about 700 less delegate votes than the 11th district.

From a campaigning perspective one of the important lessons of Ken's convention victory is the importance of building a statewide network. In a primary you can jack up vote totals in high density localities to win. In a convention each locality is assigned a certain number of votes. This forces you to compete in every location if you want to win, and you need to try to get a significant percentage of each localities votes. Ken's statewide network that the convention forced him to create enabled him to compete in every single district, and will hopefully be the backbone that propels him to victory in November. Ken's extensive political connections as an active state senator almost guaranteed him victories in Loudon, Fairfax, and Prince William counties as soon as he announced. Having the political connections heading into the race enabled him to win these three large localities easily. Political connections are something any candidate needs to develop before running an effective campaign for statewide office.

While the chairmanship race was more of a contest than the Lieutenant Governor's race, Pat Mullins and co pretty well swept the floor. There are two things that jump out though. Bill Stanley almost won his home congressional district. He took 48.84% in the 5th district which is a very solid showign for an underdog with only three weeks to campaign. The congressional district where Stanley did second best was the 11th district where he took 36.05%. The 11th district is the district Prince William County votes in, and it was one of the few ways Jeff Frederick's supporters had an opportunity at the convention to protest what happened to Jeff this past spring.

That's as much as I can draw out of the congressional breakdowns for the convention results. I'm hcurious to here what you think the results say. Also it would be very nice in future conventions to have access to unit results so that we can analyze them and see where candidates strengths are in each district, and what correlations and trends the unit results tell us. Hopefully this is something we will have access to after the next convention whenever that may be.

On one final note it will be interesting to see if Deeds and his statewide network and connections can pull of a victory tomorrow.

Amy Frederick no longer running for Delegate

In a recent letter, Amy Frederick announced she will no longer be running to replace her husband Jeff Frederick in the VA House of Delegates. In early February she and her husband announced she was exploring a bid for the House of Delegates.

April 28, 2009

Dear Friends:

Since first beginning to explore the possibility of campaigning to represent the people of the 52nd District in the House of Delegates, I have been humbled by the support and encouragement I received from across eastern Prince William county, and indeed, beyond. Having been honored to stand by Jeff's side for the past six years as he has served, I have had the opportunity to meet and get to know many of the people of this district. They have made this job a rewarding experience for both of us, and the lasting friendships will always remain.

Today, it is with mixed emotions that I announce my withdrawal from the race to succeed Jeff in the House of Delegates.

Unfortunately, some in the leadership of the Republican Party have demonstrated a greater interest in playing politics than in advancing our conservative principles and making life better for the families and the citizens of Virginia. I'm not interested in running for office to serve under broken leadership, where the Speaker compromises principle for what he perceives as immediate political gain. What so many entrusted with leadership in our party fail to recognize is that ignoring our core principles in pursuit of titles and power without purpose is exactly the behavior that severely reduced our ranks in the House, handed the Senate to the Democrats, and has resulted in one statewide loss after another.

Although my campaign ends today, it has been a pleasure to travel around the district and introduce myself as a potential candidate to so many wonderful people.

I want to first thank my friends and family for supporting me and encouraging me to run. I also want to thank Kris Morris and my supporters, who have spent hours volunteering on my behalf. To these people, I will remain forever grateful.

I'm excited about the future, and I will be working hard to make sure that people of principle who share Jeff's and my commitment to service are elected and re-elected this year. I'm confident that in years to come, our party will have new leadership and a new direction, which will bode well for fresh, new ideas -- and ultimately, handing our children a better Commonwealth than the one we inherited.

Most sincerely,

Amy Frederick

According to a comment by Amy on facebook she believes Rafael Lopez will be the Republican nominee for that seat. As of yet there noone has filed from the Democrat Party to run for the seat.

It will be very interesting over the coming years to see what the Frederck's do in party politics. I can't imagine they are done for life.

On another note, so far it seems noone is trying to challenge Pat Mullins for RPV chairman. The vote on the matter by state central is on Saturday, and if someone decides to challenge Pat, then we will have a vote at the state convention May 30th.

Jeff Frederick's Speech to the PWCRC

Here is the speech Jeff Frederick gave at the Prince William County Republican Committee meeting on Saturday where the committee unanimously passed a resolution supporting Chairman Jeff Frederick.  It is the first speech by the chairman since the effort to remove him became public, and he does a very good job laying out in the speech the things that he has done and is doing as party chair.

(If you would like to support chairman Jeff Frederick please join "We Support Chairman Jeff Frederick.")

Text of the PWCRC Resolution in Support of Jeff Frederick

The following is a copy of the resolution that was passed unanimously at the Prince William County Republican Convention on 14 March 2009.

Resolution (3) March 14, 2009
Resolution in support of RPV Chairman Jeff Frederick

Whereas, the Prince William County Republican Convention believes that the strength of the Republican Party comes from the grassroots up, not the top down.

Whereas, the Plan of Organization of the Republican Party of Virginia essentially dissolves the party organization every two or four years and reconstitutes all of its committees by the vote of each jurisdiction’s mass meeting or convention.

Whereas, in May 2008, the Prince William County Republicans selected Jeff Frederick as their party chairman with 84 percent of the Prince William delegation’s vote.

Now, Therefore, be resolved, that the Prince William County Republican Convention:

1. Fully endorses and supports the Republican Party of Virginia Chairman Jeff Frederick.

2. We call on Republicans across the Commonwealth to focus on the elections at hand. Chairman Frederick is doing the job he was elected to do,
namely to make the state party the servant of the local unit and not its master.

3. We call on the State Central Committee and senatorial caucus to also fully endorse Chairman Jeff Frederick and assist him unconditionally to retake the Commonwealth of Virginia for the Republican Party.

(If you want to help join the effort to keep Jeff Frederick as chairman, please visit "We Support Chairman Jeff Frederick".)

Prince William County Republicans Support Jeff Frederick

The following article is written by someone who attended the PWRC meeting where the committee unanimously voted to support Jeff Frederick.  This is one of the biggest counties and a key to winning NOVA.  If Bob McDonnell is successful in upsetting these Republicans, and other likeminded Republicans around the state, well... I hope he doesn't.

Some Real Grassroots Support for Jeff Frederick

Ladies and Gentlemen of the State Central Committee,

Just three hours ago, I was in the Prince William County Republican Committee Convention.  At that time there was a resolution put to the floor in support of our (yours and my) Chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia.  That resolution fully and unambigulously endorses Chairman Frederick; it calls on all of you to focus on winning the next elections; and to unconditionally assist Chairman Frederick in the performance of his duties.  

The measure was read in its entirety and discussion was requested-there was none.  A vote was taken.  Those in favor were asked to raise their hands and a forest of arms appeared.  Those against were asked to vote and I saw no hands.  Even accounting for a home town crowd, I say so much for the fantasy that there is a "grassroots" effort to unseat Chairman Frederick.  This would be a really good time to get down to the business at hand and forget the coup.

Best Regards,

Bill Card

Dumfries, VA

If you would like to join the effort to keep Jeff Frederick as Chairman, please join "We Support Chairman Jeff Frederick".