Earlier I mentioned an upcoming announcement coming out of Fairfax Co. Howie Lind state central member from the 10th District will be challenging Jim Rich for the 10th District Chairmanship at the 10th District convention. Black Velvet has all the details, and announced it first. I and many other activists from across the state are happy to see a strong challenge to chairman Rich. He has made a reputation as a chairman who is concerned with holding personal power than advancing the party, and trying to take down anyone who disagrees with him. If you believe in free and open government I hope you will join Howie Lind in his bid for 10th District Chairman at the May 22nd convention.
(True to form, I am hearing Jim Rich and his friends on the Loudoun County Republican Committee executive board Glen Caroline, Candace Strother, and others are working to set the filing deadline for Loudoun delegates for February 20th which would people from getting involved in the process as opposed to having it at the regular LCRC mass meeting in March.)
Showing posts with label VA 10th CD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label VA 10th CD. Show all posts
Monday, January 18, 2010
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
2009 Convention Results (With CD Breakdowns)
The grand total results for the convention have been available for a while. I first saw them on the AP. Pat Mullins also e-mailed out the final results for each race a few days ago. Also the congressional district breakdown for the attorney general race was first released published by Not Larry Sabato and Shaun Kenney. However here is the results with the congressional district breakdowns for each of the three races. (To the best of my knowledge it is the first time the complete results have been posted online.) I was waiting for a little while on talking about the results in the hope that I could get hold of the results from the different units and analyze that. It seems however that certain members of the executive committee very vehemently opposed releasing these results and they are unavailable.
The first thing about these results is how well each of the victors did. Bolling, Cuccinelli, and Mullins won by 84%, 57%, and 70% respectively. It was also very gracious of Muldoon, Brownlee, Foster, and Stanley to concede and pledge to work for and with their former opponents. I am confident the success of our nominees and the graciousness of their challengers will unite our party over the summer, and towards victory in the fall.
In the Lieutenant Governor's race a couple things stand out. First off Bolling didn't do poorly in any congressional district. The lowest he received in any cd was 73.3%. Any candidate would love for that to be their lowest return in a district. Another thing that stands out is how poorly Patrick Muldoon did in the 9th district. In his home district he received 11.19% of the vote, and it was his 9th strongest congressional district. There were only two districts where he received a lower percent of the vote: the 8th and 3rd districts. I was honestly shocked as I expected Muldoon would beable to bring a lot of supporters to the convention from the 9th. Either the letter sent out by the 9th district leaders did in Muldoon, or he is just not very popular or well known in his home district. The other interesting thing is that Muldoon took the highest percent in the 10th district. With 202.39 weighted votes he took 26.7%, 10.33% better than he did statewide. I'm not sure exactly why Mulddon did that well in the 10th district, but maybe 10th district voters are itching for a change and are becoming sick of the establishment for some reason.
In the Attorney General race Ken Cuccinelli won eight of the eleven congressional districts, and came in second in the three he lost. John Brownlee won the 9th and the 4th, and Dave Foster won the 8th. There were also only two congressional districts Ken won where he received less than 50%. They were the 3rd and the 5th districts. Keeping Ken below 50% in the congressional districts he won was an essential part of the Brownlee/Foster plan to force a second ballot. They were atleast successful in two of the eight districts Ken won. Ken took over 65% in the 7th, 11th, and 1st districts and over 60% in the 10th and 6th districts. While Ken's home district is the 11th, the 7th gave Ken the highest percentage of the vote based in part on a surprisingly large victory in Chesterfield Co. Both Ken and Dave Foster won their home districts, the 11th, and 8th. John Brownlee only pulled 38.45% in the 6th district where he resides. Ken was able to win Salem and Roanoke cities, and almost took Roanoke county from John Brownlee. While John lives in the 6th district some would consider the 9th his home district since he has worked their as a prosecutor for a while, and he was able to win the 9th with 63.03% of the vote. However a win in the 9th only does you so much when it has about 700 less delegate votes than the 11th district.
From a campaigning perspective one of the important lessons of Ken's convention victory is the importance of building a statewide network. In a primary you can jack up vote totals in high density localities to win. In a convention each locality is assigned a certain number of votes. This forces you to compete in every location if you want to win, and you need to try to get a significant percentage of each localities votes. Ken's statewide network that the convention forced him to create enabled him to compete in every single district, and will hopefully be the backbone that propels him to victory in November. Ken's extensive political connections as an active state senator almost guaranteed him victories in Loudon, Fairfax, and Prince William counties as soon as he announced. Having the political connections heading into the race enabled him to win these three large localities easily. Political connections are something any candidate needs to develop before running an effective campaign for statewide office.
While the chairmanship race was more of a contest than the Lieutenant Governor's race, Pat Mullins and co pretty well swept the floor. There are two things that jump out though. Bill Stanley almost won his home congressional district. He took 48.84% in the 5th district which is a very solid showign for an underdog with only three weeks to campaign. The congressional district where Stanley did second best was the 11th district where he took 36.05%. The 11th district is the district Prince William County votes in, and it was one of the few ways Jeff Frederick's supporters had an opportunity at the convention to protest what happened to Jeff this past spring.
That's as much as I can draw out of the congressional breakdowns for the convention results. I'm hcurious to here what you think the results say. Also it would be very nice in future conventions to have access to unit results so that we can analyze them and see where candidates strengths are in each district, and what correlations and trends the unit results tell us. Hopefully this is something we will have access to after the next convention whenever that may be.
On one final note it will be interesting to see if Deeds and his statewide network and connections can pull of a victory tomorrow.
The first thing about these results is how well each of the victors did. Bolling, Cuccinelli, and Mullins won by 84%, 57%, and 70% respectively. It was also very gracious of Muldoon, Brownlee, Foster, and Stanley to concede and pledge to work for and with their former opponents. I am confident the success of our nominees and the graciousness of their challengers will unite our party over the summer, and towards victory in the fall.
In the Lieutenant Governor's race a couple things stand out. First off Bolling didn't do poorly in any congressional district. The lowest he received in any cd was 73.3%. Any candidate would love for that to be their lowest return in a district. Another thing that stands out is how poorly Patrick Muldoon did in the 9th district. In his home district he received 11.19% of the vote, and it was his 9th strongest congressional district. There were only two districts where he received a lower percent of the vote: the 8th and 3rd districts. I was honestly shocked as I expected Muldoon would beable to bring a lot of supporters to the convention from the 9th. Either the letter sent out by the 9th district leaders did in Muldoon, or he is just not very popular or well known in his home district. The other interesting thing is that Muldoon took the highest percent in the 10th district. With 202.39 weighted votes he took 26.7%, 10.33% better than he did statewide. I'm not sure exactly why Mulddon did that well in the 10th district, but maybe 10th district voters are itching for a change and are becoming sick of the establishment for some reason.
In the Attorney General race Ken Cuccinelli won eight of the eleven congressional districts, and came in second in the three he lost. John Brownlee won the 9th and the 4th, and Dave Foster won the 8th. There were also only two congressional districts Ken won where he received less than 50%. They were the 3rd and the 5th districts. Keeping Ken below 50% in the congressional districts he won was an essential part of the Brownlee/Foster plan to force a second ballot. They were atleast successful in two of the eight districts Ken won. Ken took over 65% in the 7th, 11th, and 1st districts and over 60% in the 10th and 6th districts. While Ken's home district is the 11th, the 7th gave Ken the highest percentage of the vote based in part on a surprisingly large victory in Chesterfield Co. Both Ken and Dave Foster won their home districts, the 11th, and 8th. John Brownlee only pulled 38.45% in the 6th district where he resides. Ken was able to win Salem and Roanoke cities, and almost took Roanoke county from John Brownlee. While John lives in the 6th district some would consider the 9th his home district since he has worked their as a prosecutor for a while, and he was able to win the 9th with 63.03% of the vote. However a win in the 9th only does you so much when it has about 700 less delegate votes than the 11th district.
From a campaigning perspective one of the important lessons of Ken's convention victory is the importance of building a statewide network. In a primary you can jack up vote totals in high density localities to win. In a convention each locality is assigned a certain number of votes. This forces you to compete in every location if you want to win, and you need to try to get a significant percentage of each localities votes. Ken's statewide network that the convention forced him to create enabled him to compete in every single district, and will hopefully be the backbone that propels him to victory in November. Ken's extensive political connections as an active state senator almost guaranteed him victories in Loudon, Fairfax, and Prince William counties as soon as he announced. Having the political connections heading into the race enabled him to win these three large localities easily. Political connections are something any candidate needs to develop before running an effective campaign for statewide office.
While the chairmanship race was more of a contest than the Lieutenant Governor's race, Pat Mullins and co pretty well swept the floor. There are two things that jump out though. Bill Stanley almost won his home congressional district. He took 48.84% in the 5th district which is a very solid showign for an underdog with only three weeks to campaign. The congressional district where Stanley did second best was the 11th district where he took 36.05%. The 11th district is the district Prince William County votes in, and it was one of the few ways Jeff Frederick's supporters had an opportunity at the convention to protest what happened to Jeff this past spring.
That's as much as I can draw out of the congressional breakdowns for the convention results. I'm hcurious to here what you think the results say. Also it would be very nice in future conventions to have access to unit results so that we can analyze them and see where candidates strengths are in each district, and what correlations and trends the unit results tell us. Hopefully this is something we will have access to after the next convention whenever that may be.
On one final note it will be interesting to see if Deeds and his statewide network and connections can pull of a victory tomorrow.
Friday, April 3, 2009
State Central Committee Meeting Coverage
For those of y'all who won't beable to make it to the Marriott for the State Central Committee meeting, and the rally, Bearing Drift will be covering the story all day. I would encourage you to check out Bearing Drift throughout the day and follow these momentous events.
In case you haven't seen it yet, Jeff Schapiro did an excellent analysis of what will happen tomorrow.
Also for those who want to remove Jeff Frederick because he is and will lose us elections, please stop and think. Did Jeff cause the electoral losses this party has sustained since 2001? I sorta doubt it since he was only elected to the House of Delegates in 2003. If Jeff didn't cause those losses, maybe something more systemic lead to our 2008 losses and might lead to our losses in 2009.
Also three of the district chairs who have done the most to undermine Jeff Frederick are Mike Wade of the 3rd District, Tucker Watkins of the 5th District, and Jim Rich of the 10th District. Al three of these men have held their positions for much longer than Jeff has been RPV chair. How successful have these three men been in winning their districts for the GOP? Mike Wade is from Bobby Scott's district a very solid Democrat district, Tucker Watkins just saw his Republican congressman lose in 2008, and Jim Rich was unable to deliver his district for McCain last year. Maybe their is a deeper problem within the RPV that will not be solved by removing Jeff Frederick.
Last question, while every one has enjoyed hating on Jeff, who will replace him? If we replace him with someone worse than Jeff will we have gained anything through this debacle?
Final question is can you name me five prominent people who actively supported Jeff in 2008 who are supporting his removal now. Those trying to remove Jeff have argued that they have grassroots support for this, and some have argued the same convention who voted to install him would vote to remove him now if it could. If this is true who are the prominent 2008 Frederick supporters who are leading the charge to remove him now?
If you would like to get involved in the We Support Chairman Jeff Frederick movement, please join us on facebook, or the RPVNetwork, sign the petition, and contact your state central members and theMcDonnell campaign.
In case you haven't seen it yet, Jeff Schapiro did an excellent analysis of what will happen tomorrow.
Also for those who want to remove Jeff Frederick because he is and will lose us elections, please stop and think. Did Jeff cause the electoral losses this party has sustained since 2001? I sorta doubt it since he was only elected to the House of Delegates in 2003. If Jeff didn't cause those losses, maybe something more systemic lead to our 2008 losses and might lead to our losses in 2009.
Also three of the district chairs who have done the most to undermine Jeff Frederick are Mike Wade of the 3rd District, Tucker Watkins of the 5th District, and Jim Rich of the 10th District. Al three of these men have held their positions for much longer than Jeff has been RPV chair. How successful have these three men been in winning their districts for the GOP? Mike Wade is from Bobby Scott's district a very solid Democrat district, Tucker Watkins just saw his Republican congressman lose in 2008, and Jim Rich was unable to deliver his district for McCain last year. Maybe their is a deeper problem within the RPV that will not be solved by removing Jeff Frederick.
Last question, while every one has enjoyed hating on Jeff, who will replace him? If we replace him with someone worse than Jeff will we have gained anything through this debacle?
Final question is can you name me five prominent people who actively supported Jeff in 2008 who are supporting his removal now. Those trying to remove Jeff have argued that they have grassroots support for this, and some have argued the same convention who voted to install him would vote to remove him now if it could. If this is true who are the prominent 2008 Frederick supporters who are leading the charge to remove him now?
If you would like to get involved in the We Support Chairman Jeff Frederick movement, please join us on facebook, or the RPVNetwork, sign the petition, and contact your state central members and theMcDonnell campaign.