Major Democrat Donor Endorses Bob McDonnell

Today in a press conference Sheila Crump Johnson a self described lifelong democrat endorsed Bob McDonnell. Sheila Johnson lives in Middleburg, VA is "Co-Founder of Black Entertainment Television, a local business owner, and noted philanthropist and entrepeneur." She is also the world's first female African-American billionaire. One of the causes she has donated heavily to is the Democrat Party. According to VPAP, since 2003 she has donated $654,378 to Democrat candidates. This includes about $600,000 to Tim Kaine and his PAC, and another $1,000 each to Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran. Her one donation to a Republican so far seems to be part of her effort to defeat Jill Vogel's campaign for State Senate.

In the endorsement, Sheila made it clear that she believed that Bob McDonnell will help bring about the economic recovery this state desperately needs.

“Make no mistake, these are tough economic times for all Virginians. Unemployment is on the rise and families are struggling to stay in their homes. We need bold and innovative leadership to move our state forward and that’s why I’ve chosen to support Bob McDonnell for Governor. He has shown me that he has the right vision and the executive leadership skills that will guide Virginia through these challenging times. He understands that we have to help businesses in our state - both big and small - thrive so that we put Virginians back to work. I’m proud to endorse Bob McDonnell to be our next governor.”

This will help McDonnell among two of his weakest demographics, African-American and NOVA voters. While Sheila courageously took a stand for the good of the commonwealth, it will be interesting to watch Democrat bloggers turn on her.

In other news, Creigh Deeds talks about horse manure in his stocking when asked about creating jobs in south west Virginia.

(Simultaneously Posted at VASocialConservative, and Off The Trunk.)

So how did Creigh Deeds win?

Their a number of different theories on how Creigh Deeds won the nomination last night. One of the main theories is that the Washington Post endorsement turned around the race. This theory says that this was an endorsement Moran was counting on, and when Creigh Deeds received it Moran had the wind sucked out of his sails, and Deeds catapaulted to first place.

A couple other ideas are that the SWAC bloggers bringing up McAuliffe's past connections lead to McAuliffe's downfall, and Ben Tribbett's endorsement had an unintended effect.

So how did Creight Deeds actually win? First of all make no doubt about it, Creigh Deeds won this race. Sure the other candidates made mistakes, but so does everyone. Moran and McAuliffe didn't have big "macacca" where they gave it up. Instead Moran and McAuliffe spent months telling the state that the other candidate was horrible. Eventually enough people voted for neither of them and realized Deeds was the only one who wasn't horrible. As rule 39 in Morton Blackwell's Rules of the Public Policy Process states, "Winners aren't perfect. They made fewer mistakes than their rivals." Also they remembered that it was a long election cycle, and didn't give up when they were behind so that when McAuliffe and Moran stumbled they were in position to take advantage of the opportunity.

Republican Response to the Democrat Primary.

In response to the Democrat primary results, Bob McDonnell issued the following video message.


Pat Mullins the new RPV chairman also issued a press statement. The following paragraphs are some of the highlights.

“Virginia Democrats have nominated a slate of three candidates that would raise taxes as soon as possible and lead with the people’s checkbook as their weapon. Should they succeed in their mission, these three candidates would increase the financial strain on Virginians and private enterprise, depress economic growth and stifle job creation.

“Given the dismal voter turnout in their primary election, it is clear that there is little excitement in their party and an even smaller appetite for the kind of expansive government their candidates represent. By contrast, our party is enthusiastically behind our excellent ticket of Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli, as proven by the attendance of over 8,000 Republicans at our recent convention. Everywhere I travel in Virginia, local Republican interest is high, which bodes well for our chances in November.

“Finally, the rejection of Terry McAuliffe indicates that even Democrats are disillusioned about the direction their party and leadership have taken. When a wealthy, insider financed, nationally prominent, personal friend of the Clintons is rebuked in such a manner, it is a clear indicator of a party in disarray from top to bottom. On the Republican side, we are energized and look forward to the road ahead.”

As a note on the excitement that is building within the Republican Party, just like on the ticket airport tour, it appears the Republicans had packed attendances at their campaign headquarters openings.

Let's keep up the energy, stay positive, conservative, and issues oriented, and we should win in November.

Democrat Primary Results

Today was the Democrat primary for governor, but you might not have noticed. Last gubernatorial primary the combined Republican and Democrat turnout was slightly above 6%. This year while the turnout was much higher today than the 2.6% the Democrats accomplished last cycle, a lot of attention was focused on the low turnout. Throughout the day reports came in from Roanoke, Harrisonburg, the Shenandoah Valley, Loudon, NOVA, all over Virginia, and other anecdotal reports of low voter turnout.

The low voter turnout statewide prompted Terry McAuliffe to send an e-mail to his supporters reminding them to vote and remindign them how big a difference their one vote could make. The interesting thing is he had to resort to an internal poll of 200 people to find hope of a victory.

While the Democrats eventually hit a voter turnout of a hair over 6.4%, one thing became painfully obvious, the Democrat ground operation left much to be wanted. Along with the reports of low voter turnout, most of these reports reported included comments of weak Democrat presence at the polls. Many people reported no Democrat poll workers, and few signs. Often their were more McDonnell poll workers and signs at the polls than Democrat workers. This picture from Loudon sums it up well. The BulletProof Monk had some interesting annalysis of the lack of Democrat poll presence.

What struck me is....with the primary so important to the Dems (their decision today may mean a win or a loss, entirely based on who they choose) Loudoun (and probably many other counties) are exhibiting little or no grassroots volunteers to man the polls or even muster enough gumption to put a sign or two up on the way to work.

I attribute this to the fact that when I went to Purcellville last November, I didn't see a single person I knew there manning the Dem's tent. It was all handled (like most of the county)by Obamanauts.... I mean, the Loudoun Dem's didn't have to raise a finger last November.

While the Republicans were engaging in a "drill" and rolling out an impressive machine (with a six point reward over our sister counties for the effort)on what became a "dry run", the Dems didn't bother building a local mechanism.It was done for them.(anybody else smell the irony of that sentence?)

Hopefully he is right and this trend carries through to the general election.

When the votes were counted, it was Creigh Deeds surge was very real. The Virginia voters rebelled against Terry McAuliffe's smear tactics and Deeds took almost 50% in a competitve three way race. Creigh Deeds won every single congressional district except the 3rd district which he lost by 2%. He was particularly strong in the south western part of the state where he won the 5th, 6th, and 9th districts by atleast 68% each.

It seems that while Terry McAuliffe was e-mailing his supporters encouraging them to vote, he knew he was going to lose the primary he had invested so much money into. One report indicates he was calling his donors and warning them he would lose last night. To his credit in a show of party unity his e-mail to supporters tonight encouraged them to support Creigh Deeds and even had a link for them to donate to Deeds.

It is interesting that the two parties chose gubernatorial candidates who play well to their parties weakest demographics. Deeds has a strng base in south western Virginia, and McDonnell will do well in NOVA. It will be interesting to see how this fact plays out. The other good news for McDonnell is that his poll numbers continue to climb.

Let's campaign hard, and let the best man win in November.

What else would you expect from a Clinton operative?

The day before the Democratic Gubernatorial primary in a last ditch attempt to stave off the meteoric rise of Creigh Deeds, Terry McAulliffe decides to issue a letter from a couple victims of the VT tragedy and condemn Creigh Deeds for his stance on guns. First of all being able to buy guns at gun shows and bring them to bars has nothing to do with the Virginia Tech shooting. It is also simply a way of pulling at emotional strings for political advantage and to assault the second amendment. I thank Creigh Deeds for willing to stand up for gun rights at times, and I hope that the voters of Virginia will reject these low tactics either tomorrow or in November. I agree with Mason Conservative that this is a very low political shot, and I would have thought political operatives would have realized that these attacks tend to backfire in Virginia.

While it gives me no added credibility on this issue. I had a number of friends who were at Tech on Apil 16th, and I lived 40 mins away at the time. So don't tell me I don't care about what happened.

Democratic Primary Update

Here is a quick political rundown of the Democratic Gubernatorial primary that is only days away.

Creigh Deeds had been running behind, but now he is possibly in the lead. While Republicans are a little wary of Creigh Deeds because he almost been McDonnell four years ago, it seems he has done some things recently that may hurt his political chances.

All that said Republicans still may not need to worry about Deeds as each democrat contender has a poll that puts them ahead. Some 2nd amendment activists are trying to get gun owners to vote for Brian Moran who most Republicans would agree would be the easiest to beat.

Polling wise it still doesn't matter who the Democrats nominate. Bob McDonnell is leading in the one early poll that matters, how favorably the electorate views a candidate.

On a final note Bill Clinton is coming to Virginia one final time this weekend in support of Terry McAuliffe in what will probably be a low turnout affair next Tuesday.

More Good News for McDonnell/Bolling

Only three days after claiming the nomination today has been full of good news for McDonnell/Bolling.

A recent Survey USA poll of Northern Virginia (Fairfax, Loudon, Prince William, and Arlington counties) has McDonnell tied with McAuliffe and Deeds and only 5 points behind Moran. For McDonnell to be competitive in an area Democrats need todominate is a very good sign.

McDonnell: 44%
McAuliffe: 44%

McDonnell: 43%
Deeds: 43%

McDonnell: 42%
Moran: 47%

The new fundraising numbers also are very good. The latest financial reports cover April 1st through May 27th. PWConservative sifted through the reports and McDonnell raised $3.7 million in that period and has $4.9 million cash on hand. He raised more than all the other Democrats combined in that period, and has over double the cash on hand than the Democrats combined.

Bolling has also enjoyed similar success fundraising over the past two months. He raised $448,000 over this period and has $928,000 cash on hand over three times more than the nearest candidate.

The RPV had a very energetic and unifying convention last weekend and the top of the ticket is polling well and fundraising well. Let's go door to door these weekends and make sure the GOP succeeds this fall.

Also Ken Cuccinelli has a significant fundraising gap to make up with Democrat Steve Shannon. Pleas consider donating to the Cuccinelli for Attorney General campaign.

Ken Cuccinelli
for Attorney General of Virginia
$

Deeds For Governor?

Creigh Deeds is probably the scariest possible Democratic gubernatorial nominee to Republicans as he has the best shot at winning in November. He is a conservative Democrat who was endorsed by the NRA in 2005 and only lost to Bob McDonnell by 300 votes in the Attorney General race. While the conventional wisdom is that the Democrats will nominate Terry McAuliffe, Creigh Deeds seems to have the most momentum in a nomination contest that is in a statistical dead heat. After seeing the recent poll numbers I received an e-mail from Sam Rasoul announcing that he was endorsing Creigh Deeds. It is one more endorsement for a campaign that had largely been flying under the radar. It will be very interesting to see who the Democrats end up nominating in a week. Then the real fun can start.

McDonnell Remains Unscathed from the Frederick Situation

One thing I was worried about during the Frederick situation was that McDonnell would see his high favorables decline and his low negatives increase. He currently leads all his possible opponents by double digits in the latest Rasmussen poll, and according to the poll, "Of all four gubernatorial candidates, McDonnell has seen the biggest increase in his voter favorables since the last survey." Things continue to look good for Bob McDonnell. Hopefully the RPV State Convention will continue to build his momentum and the Democrats will have a bruiser of a primary. No matter what inter party squabbles we may have, and if you read this blog you know I think they are important, we need to win the governors mansion this year. It will help turn this state and maybe even nation around politically, and will be key to help us in the upcoming redistricting process.

More Amazing Poll Numbers for McDonnell

Today Rasmussen released a new likely voters poll for the Virginia Gubernatorial race.  In the last Rasmussen poll on this race, Bob McDonnell lead Terry McAuliffe by 5%, was tied with Creigh Deeds, and was behind Brian Moran by 4%.

Now McDonnell leads all three candidates: Creigh Deeds by 9%, Terry McAuliffe by 7%, and Brian Moran by 3%.  Also McDonnell has the highest favorables, 50%, and the lowest negative, 18%, of either of the 4 candidates in the race.  

These are very good numbers for McDonnell, he is already leading, already has high favorables, and his opponents will probably have a bloody primary over the next few months.

The irony in this poll is who Rasmussen says is declining in the polls.

McDonnell’s and Moran’s numbers are largely unchanged from the earlier survey, while both Deeds’ and McAuliffe’s have deteriorated slightly.

Many believed Moran would be on the decline with the near win of Joe Murray, and the entrance of Terry McAuliffe into the race.

As the poll says though...

The race is likely to become clearer after the three men address the state Democratic Party’s annual Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner Saturday in Richmond.