Major Democrat Donor Endorses Bob McDonnell

Today in a press conference Sheila Crump Johnson a self described lifelong democrat endorsed Bob McDonnell. Sheila Johnson lives in Middleburg, VA is "Co-Founder of Black Entertainment Television, a local business owner, and noted philanthropist and entrepeneur." She is also the world's first female African-American billionaire. One of the causes she has donated heavily to is the Democrat Party. According to VPAP, since 2003 she has donated $654,378 to Democrat candidates. This includes about $600,000 to Tim Kaine and his PAC, and another $1,000 each to Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran. Her one donation to a Republican so far seems to be part of her effort to defeat Jill Vogel's campaign for State Senate.

In the endorsement, Sheila made it clear that she believed that Bob McDonnell will help bring about the economic recovery this state desperately needs.

“Make no mistake, these are tough economic times for all Virginians. Unemployment is on the rise and families are struggling to stay in their homes. We need bold and innovative leadership to move our state forward and that’s why I’ve chosen to support Bob McDonnell for Governor. He has shown me that he has the right vision and the executive leadership skills that will guide Virginia through these challenging times. He understands that we have to help businesses in our state - both big and small - thrive so that we put Virginians back to work. I’m proud to endorse Bob McDonnell to be our next governor.”

This will help McDonnell among two of his weakest demographics, African-American and NOVA voters. While Sheila courageously took a stand for the good of the commonwealth, it will be interesting to watch Democrat bloggers turn on her.

In other news, Creigh Deeds talks about horse manure in his stocking when asked about creating jobs in south west Virginia.

(Simultaneously Posted at VASocialConservative, and Off The Trunk.)

So how did Creigh Deeds win?

Their a number of different theories on how Creigh Deeds won the nomination last night. One of the main theories is that the Washington Post endorsement turned around the race. This theory says that this was an endorsement Moran was counting on, and when Creigh Deeds received it Moran had the wind sucked out of his sails, and Deeds catapaulted to first place.

A couple other ideas are that the SWAC bloggers bringing up McAuliffe's past connections lead to McAuliffe's downfall, and Ben Tribbett's endorsement had an unintended effect.

So how did Creight Deeds actually win? First of all make no doubt about it, Creigh Deeds won this race. Sure the other candidates made mistakes, but so does everyone. Moran and McAuliffe didn't have big "macacca" where they gave it up. Instead Moran and McAuliffe spent months telling the state that the other candidate was horrible. Eventually enough people voted for neither of them and realized Deeds was the only one who wasn't horrible. As rule 39 in Morton Blackwell's Rules of the Public Policy Process states, "Winners aren't perfect. They made fewer mistakes than their rivals." Also they remembered that it was a long election cycle, and didn't give up when they were behind so that when McAuliffe and Moran stumbled they were in position to take advantage of the opportunity.

Democratic Primary Update

Here is a quick political rundown of the Democratic Gubernatorial primary that is only days away.

Creigh Deeds had been running behind, but now he is possibly in the lead. While Republicans are a little wary of Creigh Deeds because he almost been McDonnell four years ago, it seems he has done some things recently that may hurt his political chances.

All that said Republicans still may not need to worry about Deeds as each democrat contender has a poll that puts them ahead. Some 2nd amendment activists are trying to get gun owners to vote for Brian Moran who most Republicans would agree would be the easiest to beat.

Polling wise it still doesn't matter who the Democrats nominate. Bob McDonnell is leading in the one early poll that matters, how favorably the electorate views a candidate.

On a final note Bill Clinton is coming to Virginia one final time this weekend in support of Terry McAuliffe in what will probably be a low turnout affair next Tuesday.

More Good News for McDonnell/Bolling

Only three days after claiming the nomination today has been full of good news for McDonnell/Bolling.

A recent Survey USA poll of Northern Virginia (Fairfax, Loudon, Prince William, and Arlington counties) has McDonnell tied with McAuliffe and Deeds and only 5 points behind Moran. For McDonnell to be competitive in an area Democrats need todominate is a very good sign.

McDonnell: 44%
McAuliffe: 44%

McDonnell: 43%
Deeds: 43%

McDonnell: 42%
Moran: 47%

The new fundraising numbers also are very good. The latest financial reports cover April 1st through May 27th. PWConservative sifted through the reports and McDonnell raised $3.7 million in that period and has $4.9 million cash on hand. He raised more than all the other Democrats combined in that period, and has over double the cash on hand than the Democrats combined.

Bolling has also enjoyed similar success fundraising over the past two months. He raised $448,000 over this period and has $928,000 cash on hand over three times more than the nearest candidate.

The RPV had a very energetic and unifying convention last weekend and the top of the ticket is polling well and fundraising well. Let's go door to door these weekends and make sure the GOP succeeds this fall.

Also Ken Cuccinelli has a significant fundraising gap to make up with Democrat Steve Shannon. Pleas consider donating to the Cuccinelli for Attorney General campaign.

Ken Cuccinelli
for Attorney General of Virginia
$

McDonnell Remains Unscathed from the Frederick Situation

One thing I was worried about during the Frederick situation was that McDonnell would see his high favorables decline and his low negatives increase. He currently leads all his possible opponents by double digits in the latest Rasmussen poll, and according to the poll, "Of all four gubernatorial candidates, McDonnell has seen the biggest increase in his voter favorables since the last survey." Things continue to look good for Bob McDonnell. Hopefully the RPV State Convention will continue to build his momentum and the Democrats will have a bruiser of a primary. No matter what inter party squabbles we may have, and if you read this blog you know I think they are important, we need to win the governors mansion this year. It will help turn this state and maybe even nation around politically, and will be key to help us in the upcoming redistricting process.

More Amazing Poll Numbers for McDonnell

Today Rasmussen released a new likely voters poll for the Virginia Gubernatorial race.  In the last Rasmussen poll on this race, Bob McDonnell lead Terry McAuliffe by 5%, was tied with Creigh Deeds, and was behind Brian Moran by 4%.

Now McDonnell leads all three candidates: Creigh Deeds by 9%, Terry McAuliffe by 7%, and Brian Moran by 3%.  Also McDonnell has the highest favorables, 50%, and the lowest negative, 18%, of either of the 4 candidates in the race.  

These are very good numbers for McDonnell, he is already leading, already has high favorables, and his opponents will probably have a bloody primary over the next few months.

The irony in this poll is who Rasmussen says is declining in the polls.

McDonnell’s and Moran’s numbers are largely unchanged from the earlier survey, while both Deeds’ and McAuliffe’s have deteriorated slightly.

Many believed Moran would be on the decline with the near win of Joe Murray, and the entrance of Terry McAuliffe into the race.

As the poll says though...

The race is likely to become clearer after the three men address the state Democratic Party’s annual Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner Saturday in Richmond.

Fairfax Board of Supervisors Results and Analysis

In the middle of January, Republicans came within 16 votes of winning Brian Moran's old House of Delegates seat in Alexandria. Tonight Republicans once again came within 1% of winning another NOVA special election, this one in Fairfax County.

In the special election to elect a new Chairman of the Fairfax Board of Supervisors, the Democrats only won by about 1,200 votes out of over 100,000 votes cast.

10:04pm UPDATE: Herrity concedes. That’s two elections in a month in NOVA where GOP candidate has gotten within 1%.

UPDATE: Uncertified results with absentee returns appears to be:

Bulova 51,949
Herrity 50,732

While many people will analyze what tonight's results say about the political direction of Virginia, I want to focus on the results from the precincts in Fairfax Co. that make up the 37th State Senate District.

I analyzed the results from these precincts and found that Herrity dominated this part of Fairfax Co.:

Herrity: 9,206 votes, 56.25%

Bulova: 7,159 votes, 43.75%

Precincts Won: Herrity 30; Bulova 8

These results are particularly important because they are the best indicator as to how well a limited government principled conservative might do in a winter special election in this district. One of the criticisms of nominating Ken for Attorney General is that if he is elected the GOP will lose his senate seat. In an election we lost by a hair in Fairfax Co. as a whole, Herrity won by 13% in the 37th Senate District. Imagine a 13% win in a special election in NOVA next year, boy even winning by just half that much would be amazing. This race is the best indicator we have as to how a Republican will do in a special election in this district, and it indicates that a limited government conservative has a very good chance of winning this race.

Electing Ken Cuccinelli as Attorney General doesn't mean we will lose the 37th District Senate Seat.

Joe Murray Almost Wins Inside the Beltway and Huck PAC Announces it's VA Endorsements

Last night in Virginia's special election to replace retiring Delegate Brian Moran in the 46th district Republican Joe Murray only lost by 16 votes.  He ran a smart and competitive campaign inside the beltway and almost won.  People are already analyzing the impacts of the Democrats almost losing a seat in Northern Virginia that Obama carried with 75% of the vote in November.  At the very least the Democrats will have to think twice when they think about picking up and holding seats in NOVA this year.  Also Delegate Moran, who is running for the Democratic nomination for Governor, will have to work extra hard to convince Democrats that he can win in NOVA since he hardly held onto his own seat.

One thing I noticed while following the race for Brian Moran's seat was that the Democrats seemed to be taking the race for granted.  The Democratic Party of Virginia's website spent all its time celebrating its 2008 victories and never prominently mentioned any of the past three special elections on its website.  On the other hand, the RPV was promoting the race on its homepage as well as on its networking site.  The next time the state Democratic Party ignores a race in NOVA the consequences may be even more severe.   

Huck PAC just recently made its first endorsements for the 2009 election cycle.  It endorsed Bob McDonnell for Governor, and Ken Cuccinelli for Attorney General.  With its new National Volunteer Team it will be interesting to see how much of an impact these endorsements have on the race.  If nothing else these endorsements should help activate the Virginia grassroots supporters who campaigned for Mike Huckabee, and get them campaigning for Bob McDonnell and Ken Cuccinelli.  With the recent endorsements from Bobby Jondal and Rudy Giuliani for Bob McDonnell it is also great to see national Republican figures rallying around Bob McDonnell.