In Which I Agree With Tom Davis...

While I tend not to agree with Tom Davis, he understands Virginia politics very well, and his analysis of last week's primary was spot on. When asked by Politico what the most important election result was, and what we can learn, Davis made the point that the establishment is in trouble and even pointed to Virginia as an example of this.

"It's a political revolt out there. Jane Harman's numbers were down. Gary Miller's under 50 percent. Even the establishment Republicans in Virginia who run, they had multiple candidates against them and they were well under 50."

In VA-2, VA-5, and VA-11 there were very clear establishment candidates in Scott Rigell, Robert Hurt, and Pat Herrity. Scott, had the full backing of Bob McDonnell and Bill Bolling, Robert Hurt had the support of most Republican officials because of his electability as opposed to his positions, and Herrity had the support of almost every party leader and elected official in the 11th district including Becky Stoeckel and Anthony Bedell. With all this support all three of these candidates failed to top 50% of the vote, and in probably the biggest surprise of the night, Herrity lost to Fimian by double digits. The only reason the establishment won in the 2nd and 5th is that the opposition was very disorganized and self centered and split the vote at least 5 ways in each race. When you combine these results with Howie Lind and Bill Stanley's victories in the 10th and 5th District Chair races, combined with victories in a number of unit chair races, this has to be a discouraging year for the establishment in VA. When the grassroots organizes and works together it can win any race. As a result we now have a much stronger party as we work together to win every congressional district in the state this fall.

Keith Fimian is Outpolling Gerry Connolly

For the past few cycles Keith Fimian has been outraising incuumbent Gerry Connolly for two consecutive fundraising quarters in the 11th district, and now news comes out that he is outpolling Connolly by 5% as well. In Keith Fimian we have a strong conservative who can fundraise and outpoll the incumbent. What else do you want in a congressional candidate?

What Is On The Line In The 41st

Reposted from Mason Conservative because some things just need to be read.


I'm hearing that the state party is going to stay out of Kerry Bolognese's race to flip Dave Marsden's delegate seat, thinking that they already have a big enough majority. I couldn't be more unhappy about that if it true, Bolognese ran a true grassroots, shoe-leather campaign last fall and deserves to finish what he started, and he deserves to have the full support of the entire apparatus of the party. The county committee is firmly supporting Kerry.

What Bolognese needs is money and he needs people. There is more going on here than just a special elections, it effects the remarkable turnaround of Republican fortunes in Northern Virginia, and the upcoming 11th district congressional race that might be the last time we get a chance to take down Gerry Connolly. Losing the Cuccinelli seante seat and the possibly losing the 41st delegate district stifles the momentum we gained by our wins in three delegate districts and the incredible numbers racked up by our statewides.

Also, make no mistake about it, Gerry Connolly is involved in these races and he's working on building Democratic momentum going into his reelection and embarrassing Republicans, particularly Pat Herrity who has many overlapping areas of the 41st, as an attempt to depress Republican activism. I can't say that it will work, given the victories here in Virginia and New Jersey and Massachusetts, Republicans are about as fired up as I've ever seen. But if Bolognese can check the Democrats and flip a delegate seat he almost won by less that 200 votes just a few months ago, I truly believe it will help either Pat Herrity or Keith Fimian in defeating Connolly. We need to prove we can win on his turf, and a Bolognese win would be a body blow to Connolly's reelection and proof that Republicans do have the ground game and the message to win.

GO KERRY! I encourage everyone to go give money, and then maybe some time when you have it. We have to win this!

Another Imminent Political Announcement Coming from Fairfax Co.

Much of the recent talk has been about Pat Herrity's decision to challenge Keith Fimian for the nomination in the 11th district. (This has been rumored and discussed to varying degrees since at least Thanksgiving.)

Sources are telling me there is another big political announcement coming out of Fairfax Co. in the next few days. It will probably be public by Wednesday. Stay tuned...

Patricia Phillips Endorses Steve Hunt for State Senate

Now that Ken Cuccinelli is the Attorney General Elect of Virginia, there is a special election for the 37th state senate seat coming up. At this point we don't know the date of the election, but it will probably be soon.

Right now we have three Republicans running to replace Ken Cuccinelli: Marianne Horinko, Will Nance, and Steve Hunt.

All the buzz I have been hearing has been about Steve Hunt. He has a very thorough and bipartisan list of endorsements.

Patricia Phillips (former Republican nominee for the 33rd senate district) recently endorsed Steve Hunt in this video.

Steve Hunt also gave a very stirring and inspiring kick off speech.

This is not an endorsement as I have not had a chance to look into all the candidates yet, but with his experience winning in Fairfax Co., and commitment to conservative principles he sure seems like someone to look into as we try to find Ken Cuccinelli's replacement.

It looks like whoever wins the Republican nomination will have a very good chance of winning the special election. The results from the Pat Herrity race were pointing that direction in February. The Democrats seem to be unable to find a candidate to support inside the 37th district, and the person they do have (Del. Marsden) will probably get "Shannonized".

This special election is very important. If you have the time please get involved, and definitely make sure any friends you have vote as we keep the momentum moving to 2010 and beyond.

Fairfax Board of Supervisors Results and Analysis

In the middle of January, Republicans came within 16 votes of winning Brian Moran's old House of Delegates seat in Alexandria. Tonight Republicans once again came within 1% of winning another NOVA special election, this one in Fairfax County.

In the special election to elect a new Chairman of the Fairfax Board of Supervisors, the Democrats only won by about 1,200 votes out of over 100,000 votes cast.

10:04pm UPDATE: Herrity concedes. That’s two elections in a month in NOVA where GOP candidate has gotten within 1%.

UPDATE: Uncertified results with absentee returns appears to be:

Bulova 51,949
Herrity 50,732

While many people will analyze what tonight's results say about the political direction of Virginia, I want to focus on the results from the precincts in Fairfax Co. that make up the 37th State Senate District.

I analyzed the results from these precincts and found that Herrity dominated this part of Fairfax Co.:

Herrity: 9,206 votes, 56.25%

Bulova: 7,159 votes, 43.75%

Precincts Won: Herrity 30; Bulova 8

These results are particularly important because they are the best indicator as to how well a limited government principled conservative might do in a winter special election in this district. One of the criticisms of nominating Ken for Attorney General is that if he is elected the GOP will lose his senate seat. In an election we lost by a hair in Fairfax Co. as a whole, Herrity won by 13% in the 37th Senate District. Imagine a 13% win in a special election in NOVA next year, boy even winning by just half that much would be amazing. This race is the best indicator we have as to how a Republican will do in a special election in this district, and it indicates that a limited government conservative has a very good chance of winning this race.

Electing Ken Cuccinelli as Attorney General doesn't mean we will lose the 37th District Senate Seat.

Another Key Race in NOVA

Today voters in Fairfax Co. will go to the polls to elect a new Chairman of the Board of Supervisors for Fairfax County.  This election has Pat Herrity running on the Republican side in a heavily democratic county.  Following Joe Murray's 16 vote loss in Alexandria, another close loss or even a victory in Northern Virginia would definitely help boost Republican momentum heading into November's elections.  Some speculate that with the recent election of Michael Steele as RNC Chairman, this race could also have national implications.

If you know anyone in Fairfax County, please encourage them to brave the snow and get out and vote.  If you are wondering what Patt Herrity stands for, Del. Bob Marshall wrote an excellent endorsement in his recent e-mail blast.