Rapture Helps Romney and Obama

First of all it is sad to see that people are still taking Harold Camping seriously after he failed miserably in predicting the return of Christ, something that can not be predicted. However if his new prediction is right, PPP has found what candidates it would help. In their national poll of the presidential field, Public Policy Polling found some interesting data. (Read enjoy, and laugh.)

One game changer that could help Romney and Pawlenty's prospects for the nomination? The Rapture. 18% of GOP primary voters believe it will occur in their lifetimes and 31% of them support Palin to 15% for Romney, 11% for Cain and Gingrich, and 10% for Pawlenty. Let's say that Harold Camping's revised projection of October for the event comes true and that all the Republicans who think it's coming go up. With those voters taken out of the equation Romney leads with 16% while Pawlenty moves into second at 14%, and Palin and Cain tie for 3rd at 13% each.

Although only 18% of Republican voters think the Rapture will occur in their lifetimes, a whooping 72% of them think they would be taken up in the event that it did occur. If Romney was still here after that his nomination prospects would really be enhanced- with the 28% of GOP voters who either think they would not go up or are unsure Romney gets 23% to 13% for Pawlenty, 11% for Paul and Cain, and 10% for Palin and Bachmann.

It would be a Pyrrhic victory for him though because as our general election numbers showed Barack Obama would be pretty much unstoppable for reelection if everyone who thought they were going in the Rapture was right about it.

Pawlenty the Strongest Candidate to Defeat Romney Head on

Public Policy Polling took their first Iowa poll since Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump announced they would not be running for president. While it is very early for polling to mean a lot, one thing they found was that Pawlenty appears to be the strongest candidate in a head to head match up with Romney.

There's been a lot of speculation that the Republican race could eventually come down to Romney and a single more conservative alternative. Although this will likely not be the case when the voting in Iowa happens we tested several head to head match ups between Romney and other GOP contenders to see how they would come out. Pawlenty may actually be the strongest contender to become the 'anti-Romney' as he ties him at 41%. Otherwise Romney leads- 48-41 over Palin, 46-38 over Bachmann, and 48-34 over Cain.

Pawlenty doesn't poll the strongest head to head among Romney among 'very conservative' voters- he leads by 17 compared to a 21 point lead for Palin and a 24 point advantage for Bachmann with that group. But with center right voters- those calling themselves 'somewhat conservative'- Romney leads Pawlenty by just a single point while he has a 19 point advantage over Palin and a 22 point lead over Bachmann with that group. What that says to me is that many Republicans are looking for someone more conservative than Romney but someone who isn't bound to get creamed in the general election the way Palin, Bachmann, and Cain probably would. That's very good news for Pawlenty if it ever plays itself out in real life.

Tim Pawlenty: Not a "Fake Christian"

A powerful testimonial about Tim Pawlenty's faith was recently published. It was written by someone who used to go to church with T-Paw, but left the church when he became an atheist. He doesn't have a personal or political interest in building up Tim Pawlenty, but just wanted to relay to a friend his observations. The heart of the message stated,

"In my life, I’ve seen many –far too many– politicians who court the church when they thought it would do their career a favor, but disappear when they achieved the present goal. I can tell you, from personal experience, Governor Pawlenty is not like that... Again: I think all religion is nothing but a shameful way to control people. And I also think the GOP is destroying America. But I want you to know that the one thing people can’t say about Tim Pawlenty is that he’s a fake Christian. Thought you might be interested in an insider’s perspective."

In a day of fake Christians, every Christian should want their atheist friends to look at them and say this person is not a fake. This is even more true of politicians. If Tim Pawlenty can communicate a genuineness about his convictions and beliefs, he may do very well in Iowa and eventually the entire nominating process.

Tim Pawlenty is Running for President

Tim Pawlenty announced earlier this week he is running for president with a very inspirational video. He has a record of governing as a conservative in a very liberal state, and is one of the few people in the Republican field who has the ability to unite all wings of the Republican Party. It will be interesting to see if this is his moment, and he emerges as the unifier.

Who would you have voted for in the FRC Straw poll?

Here is a poll of the candidates listed on the FRC straw poll. Who do you support for president in 2012?

Huckabee Wins Voters Values Conference Straw Poll: 4 Way Tie for Second

This year at the Voters Values Summit Mike Huckabee won the straw poll with 28%. This is no surprise as he has been the darling of this crowd since at least 2007. The conference also only allowed in person voting so that people couldn't vote online. If this had been done in 2007 Mike Huckabee would have won the straw poll then. He took second place in 2007.

Second place was a virtual four way tie. Second, third, fourth, and fifth place were each separated by just one vote. Mitt Romney took 74 votes and 12.4%, Pawlenty 73 votes 12.23%, Palin 72 votes and 12.06%, and Pence 71 votes and 11.89%. Newt Gingrich, Bobby Jindal, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum were also on the ballot and took 23.42% combined.

Clearly the top five candidates in this straw poll all have potential with values voters. It will be interesting to see how things unfold, who actually runs, who endorses who, and ultimately who the Republican Party nominates.

Dr. Ergun Caner gave an excellent speech before the straw poll results were anounced on the importance of one person. The results show us once again how much one person can impact politics. With only 597 votes out of 1897 eligible voters anyone could have easuily found an extra 10-20 votes for their candidate to give them a strong second place finish.

Next big straw polls, CPAC 2010, and Values Voters 2010.