Rapture Helps Romney and Obama

First of all it is sad to see that people are still taking Harold Camping seriously after he failed miserably in predicting the return of Christ, something that can not be predicted. However if his new prediction is right, PPP has found what candidates it would help. In their national poll of the presidential field, Public Policy Polling found some interesting data. (Read enjoy, and laugh.)

One game changer that could help Romney and Pawlenty's prospects for the nomination? The Rapture. 18% of GOP primary voters believe it will occur in their lifetimes and 31% of them support Palin to 15% for Romney, 11% for Cain and Gingrich, and 10% for Pawlenty. Let's say that Harold Camping's revised projection of October for the event comes true and that all the Republicans who think it's coming go up. With those voters taken out of the equation Romney leads with 16% while Pawlenty moves into second at 14%, and Palin and Cain tie for 3rd at 13% each.

Although only 18% of Republican voters think the Rapture will occur in their lifetimes, a whooping 72% of them think they would be taken up in the event that it did occur. If Romney was still here after that his nomination prospects would really be enhanced- with the 28% of GOP voters who either think they would not go up or are unsure Romney gets 23% to 13% for Pawlenty, 11% for Paul and Cain, and 10% for Palin and Bachmann.

It would be a Pyrrhic victory for him though because as our general election numbers showed Barack Obama would be pretty much unstoppable for reelection if everyone who thought they were going in the Rapture was right about it.

Pawlenty the Strongest Candidate to Defeat Romney Head on

Public Policy Polling took their first Iowa poll since Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump announced they would not be running for president. While it is very early for polling to mean a lot, one thing they found was that Pawlenty appears to be the strongest candidate in a head to head match up with Romney.

There's been a lot of speculation that the Republican race could eventually come down to Romney and a single more conservative alternative. Although this will likely not be the case when the voting in Iowa happens we tested several head to head match ups between Romney and other GOP contenders to see how they would come out. Pawlenty may actually be the strongest contender to become the 'anti-Romney' as he ties him at 41%. Otherwise Romney leads- 48-41 over Palin, 46-38 over Bachmann, and 48-34 over Cain.

Pawlenty doesn't poll the strongest head to head among Romney among 'very conservative' voters- he leads by 17 compared to a 21 point lead for Palin and a 24 point advantage for Bachmann with that group. But with center right voters- those calling themselves 'somewhat conservative'- Romney leads Pawlenty by just a single point while he has a 19 point advantage over Palin and a 22 point lead over Bachmann with that group. What that says to me is that many Republicans are looking for someone more conservative than Romney but someone who isn't bound to get creamed in the general election the way Palin, Bachmann, and Cain probably would. That's very good news for Pawlenty if it ever plays itself out in real life.

New Poll is Great News for Ken Cuccinelli

Today the first poll of all three statewide races was released by Public Policy Polling. On the CRFV Blog I posted about the good news this is for the whole Republican ticket. I would take a moment to analyze what this poll means for Ken Cuccinelli.

The poll reports that Ken Cuccinelli leads Steve Shannon 45%-38% overall and 44%-26% among independents. (Ken also enjoys the support of 85% of Republican voters compared to Shannon who only has 80% from his own party.) While this is great news (especially since Shannon is well funded and had no primary contest) when you analyze the undecideds the poll gets even better. Independents have the largest percentage of undecided voters with 30%. Since Ken seems to do well among these voters there is more room for his lead to grow their. Interestingly 14% of Democrats are undecided. If they are undecided this far into the campaign season their has to be a possibility Ken can pick up some of these votes as well.

The person who some people say is too radical to win in Virginia is leading in the first poll, and even leading among independents. Let's continue to work hard and make sure Ken and the rest of the ticket win this fall.